Tuesday, December 3, 2013

As early as the 2nd Century, during the Han rule, China had a population of about 60 million people, constituting roughly a quarter of the world population. For the next 1000 years, it did not surpass this mark. It was not until the mid 18th and early 19th centuries that it exploded, doubling in less than a century, from 177 million to 358 million. Poor government policies led to this population upsurge, creating pressure on limited land resources.

The population boom is attributed to a number of factors. The Ming dynasty that preceded the Qing dynasty had put in place economic policies that promoted Chinas economic prosperity. The building of canals and reclamation of land for farming improved the agricultural sector and increased food production. The government offered incentives of tax exemption to peasants settling in marginalized areas (Butler 2003). Military conquest also expanded Chinas population, following the take over of Taiwan, Vietnam, Mongolia and Manchuria. The Ming Dynasty also introduced a variety of high yield crops, which substituted the traditional low yield crops like sorghum, millet and winter wheat. The new crops, such as potatoes, corn, and rice provide a steady supply of food.
When the Qing Dynasty took over in 1644, it sought to solve class conflicts and adopted a policy of rewarding land cultivation besides continuing with the Ming Dynastys tax exemption, spurring increased agricultural production in the hinterland. By resolving the longstanding conflicts between the peasants and nomads, the Qing emperors were able to unify and consolidate a vast empire. With the achievement of peace, prosperity and population growth returned and trade with Europe increased (Smitha 2001).
The overdependence on agriculture might have also greatly contributed to a population upsurge. This kept the vast population in the rural areas, where progressive ideas like family planning were not accessible. It is worth noting that the Dynastys anti-intellectual attitude banned and expelled many intellectuals, destroying their works that perhaps could have enlightened a larger population to seek opportunities outside farming. At about this period, Europe was beginning to undergo an industrial revolution, which checked population growth by confining people in the industrial centers and away from their families. Coincidentally, the Qing government was adamant to join the industrial revolution when it spread to most parts of Europe. This isolationism and conservative policy at the time kept China out of connection with the progress taking place elsewhere, and as a result was left behind in economic development by the West (Columbia University 2001). As is always the case with poor economies, poverty makes it difficult for the government to implement demographic policies to check uncontrollable population growth, as is the case with most of the third world.

Political stability achieved by the Qing dynasty encouraged people to migrate into frontier areas which increased agriculture and spread the population to other unsettled areas. After the coming of the Spanish colonizers, New World crops that could grow in dry areas were introduced from the Americas. The America food (Kiple 146) is believed to be the trigger of a previously stagnant population that began in the 17th century, accelerated in the 18th and 19th centuries, and produced an astronomical number of people in the 20th century. As in other parts of the world, maize provided the poor mans diet, which was rich in calories and suitable for a working population.
The government also addressed the problem of decreasing arable land available to the millions of peasants. The imperial court intervened by preventing the concentration of land under irrigation in the hands of a few wealthy individuals. However, by the turn of the eighteenth century, most land that could be irrigated for farming was already under farming, and this caused a serious problem of hunger and landlessness to a majority of peasants (Duiker and Spielvogel 493). Nonetheless, the adoption of irrigation and terracing techniques into farming were also a major boost to food production. The end result was a quick population growth supported by thriving agricultural production.
Another undoing of the Qing dynasty was its authoritarian control of commerce that discouraged fast economical growth. The state controlled trade and manufacturing, discouraging the bourgeoisie class from industrial investment like the counterparts in the West. It heavily taxed commercial activities while encouraging agriculture. Consequently, the preference of agriculture over industrialization hindered any possible innovations in science and technology that would have had a demographic impact similar to that of Europe. Since there were no jobs for most men in the industries, they remained at home to cultivate the land and inevitably, to raise their own families since theirs was a labor intensive economy.

The Chinese society was for a long period centered on the family unit, where extended families lived in the same homestead. Since the economy was largely agriculture based, big families were preferred as they provided cheap labor. As a result, sons were prized as they were strong to work in the farms and raise their own families. The effect of this on the population is that people preferred to get many children as a source of labor force in the farm and provide security to aging parents (Duiker and Spielvogel 494).
The impact of a large population was soon to be felt in the 18th century China. Population growth surpassed the supporting capacity of the agricultural based economy. Since there were no other major sources of income, droughts caused severe famines that devastated a large population (Tamura and Menton 124). In any case, the available arable land was already under pressure, since the peasants could not afford to irrigate the vast junks of dry and sandy land. Even when agriculture was productive, (Eckstein 15) the constantly increasing population kept the average living standards of the majority Chinese peasants stagnant. The state was not able to provide most social services to the large citizenry, such as Medicare and education (Duiker and Spielvogel 495).  Consequently, education was provided by a few rich individuals, which nonetheless was not effective in addressing the needs of the larger society.
By the year 1800, the population had reached 400 million people. The Qing emperors concentrated in dealing with domestic problems only possible in such a big population, at the expense of developing a vibrant commercial industry. Food shortages became common, corruption increased, taxes upped and the general the public became ungovernable. Civil strive followed, and the inevitability of change led to the dynastys collapse in the late 19th century (Sullivan 245).

The challenge of a large population is governance and sustenance. Without proper governance apparatus and provision of basic needs, even great empires can collapse. When people feel that they have been let down by their governments, unrest and civil strive is likely to occur. The history of the Qing Dynasty is one in which the demographic trends of the population were ignored and in the end, created pressure on limited resources and eventually, exploded with a revolution. All over the world, governments monitor their population statistics not as a mere political tool, but also as a basis for future planning. The lack of demographic studies and planning could be blamed for the problems that led to the collapse of the Qing Dynasty.
The economic policies of the Dynasty were also anti-progressive and unfit for a growing population. The states monopolistic grip on commerce discouraged individual investment in trade and as a result, China was left behind in the manufacturing industry that had started in Europe. A large population needs a vibrant and diverse economy to survive unprecedented eventualities like droughts.

The over-reliance in one form of production (agriculture) not only kept the masses poor, but also hindered technological innovations that could have spurred an industrial revolution and increase the peoples living standards as did in Europe. The promotions of a labor intensive economy, as well as supporting a family centered society are catalysts to a population explosion. Governments should aim to promote industrial growth, not only to create a reliable and stable economic base, but as a way of indirectly controlling population growth. The stable populations of Europe were achieved mainly during the industrial revolution of the 17th century, when, ironically, Chinas was increasing at uncontrollable rates.

Since then, Chinas only problem has been its population (Gregor 8). Governing modern China is like ruling over 15 countries the size of Germany. It is overwhelming to think that many Chinese provinces are bigger than the worlds major economies. The implication is equally mind-boggling one central government, one head of state, ruling all of the US, Germany, Nigeria, Philippines, Iran, Mexico, the UK and France put together and still they make just a fraction of Chinas entire population Centralizing power in such a nation is likely to create loopholes and links of weaknesses down the line of command. The Manchurians who ruled China were a minority who controlled all levels of governance with all powers vetted on the emperor. As a result, the government they formed was not effective to run a country of 400 million people. Countries with big populations like the US and Nigeria have a federal system of governance, which delegates powers to states with autonomy for self governance, whilst the central government intervenes in national issues. Accordingly, the Provinces of modern day China ought to gain autonomy for effective planning of resources. Otherwise, a central government will not sufficiently address issues affecting individual groups or provinces.

The following figures show the population of some of Chinas major provinces, alongside the countries they equal. 

This high population has pushed the Chinese government to adopt a one child policy, so as to avert a possible population crisis.
   
The worlds resources are limited and most of then non-renewable. For this one reason alone, as exemplified by the Qing Dynasty, governments ought to plan their policies based on demographic trends. Supporting alternative economic sectors especially in technology and industry is a sure way of creating stable economies and safeguarding against unpredictable crises. Population control measures should focus on available resources, as well as the national demand for manpower. Otherwise, an uncontrolled population will only explode and hit at itself after stressing the earth beyond its carrying capacity (MacDonald 43).

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